Computer simulation models for sustainable groundwater use in agriculture in Syria

This study was conducted to determine the deriving factors of groundwater use expansion, to evaluate the profitability of irrigated cropping in water-scarce areas in five villages in four stability zones in Syria. Further, demand for groundwater and irrigation cost function was analyzed. Farmers' groundwater investment was modeled, the probability of drilling success was determined, and system dynamic simulation model was developed. Contrary to the conventional proposition, it was found that groundwater use in these areas has transformed sustainable traditional livestock-barley farming system to non-sustainable system and led to migration in the medium run. Procurement prices of wheat and cotton, low fuel cost, and open access to groundwater constituted the driving forces for expansion. It was also found that, demand for water for high water consuming crops was elastic and hence irrigation cost and crop prices can play an important role in the water use sustainability. Investment in groundwater irrigation was unrecoverable and risky where the probability of drilling success was only 0.07. It was also evident mat due to the absence of other investment options, farmers invest in depleted natural resource. Expansion in areas allocated to high water consuming crops such as cotton have led to water depletion and are not profitable at 50% higher fuel cost than the current cost. Crops such as vegetable in combination with wheat can be sustainable option to replace high water consuming crops. Keywords: Profitability, Groundwater Investment, Demand Function, Cost Function, Simulation Models, Sustainability.