Coronavirus pandemic's impact on tourism and current account deficit in Turkey

Tourism plays a major role in financing Turkey's current account deficits, the study sought to determine whether Turkey can meet its 2023 tourism goals of 75 million visitors by 2023 and when tourism levels will return to pre-pandemic levels. The study analysed monthly visitor arrival data from January 2007 through May 2021. The first forecast covered the period from January 2007 to February 2020, but did not include the epidemic period. A second forecast covering the pandemic period was conducted from January 2007 to May 2021. The seasonal ARIMA autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to make forecasts. Turkey would have reached its goal of 75 million tourists by 2022, a year sooner than expected, but due to the coronavirus pandemic, it would miss its 2023 tourism plan by 4 to 5 years, and tourism levels will not recover pre-pandemic levels until 2035, a 15-year gap. The strength of the findings in this study is dependent on the continuation of the coronavirus pandemic; nevertheless, with the introduction of vaccinations, tourism may return to normal levels; nonetheless, with the emergence of new coronavirus variants, the future of travel appears uncertain.