The impact of digitalization on international trade and logistics performance: A comparative analysis of EU, APEC and MERCOSUR countries

The aim of this study is to determine the impact of digitalization on the international trade and logistics performance of countries, to compare this impact in terms of three different economic communities, namely the EU, APEC and MERCOSUR, and to provide policy recommendations to the countries concerned for digitalization activities. In this context, import, export and logistics performance index are used as dependent variables. To determine the impact of digitalization on international trade and logistics performance, a total of 16 independent variables were included as digitalization indicators. To determine the impact of digitalization on international trade, a panel data analysis was conducted using data from 2007 to 2022, and to determine the impact of digitalization on logistics performance, a Tobit analysis was conducted using data from 2007 to 2018. According to the analysis, the global innovation index affects positively APEC's import and logistics performance and MERCOSUR's exports and imports, while it affects negatively the EU's logistics performance. The network readiness index affects positively the EU's exports, imports and logistics performance of EU, APEC and MERCOSUR. The frontier technology readiness index affects positively the logistics performance of APEC, while it affects negatively the logistics performance of MERCOSUR. Tertiary enrollment rate affects negatively APEC's exports and logistics performance, and MERCOSUR's exports and imports, while it affects positively MERCOSUR's logistics performance. High-technology exports have a positive effect on EU and APEC's exports and imports and on MERCOSUR's imports. The ratio of high-technology exports to total manufactured exports has a negative effect on EU's and APEC's exports and imports, and on MERCOSUR imports. ICT services exports have a positive impact on EU's and APEC's exports, imports and logistics performance, but a negative impact on APEC's logistics performance. The ratio of ICT services exports to total services exports affects negatively the logistics performance of EU and APEC's exports. The ratio of ICT goods exports to total goods exports has a positive impact on the logistics performance of MERCOSUR, while it has a negative impact on MERCOSUR's exports and imports. The ratio of ICT goods imports to total goods imports affects negatively the EU's exports and imports and MERCOSUR's logistics performance, while it affects positively APEC's logistics performance and MERCOSUR's exports and imports. R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP affects negatively EU's exports and imports, while it affects positively APEC's imports and MERCOSUR's logistics performance. Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people has a negative effect on EU's exports and imports, but it has a positive effect on APEC's exports. The ratio of individuals using the internet to total population has a positive effect on EU's exports and logistics performance, but it has a negative effect on APEC's logistics performance. Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people affects positively the EU's exports, imports and logistics performance, and MERCOSUR's imports, but it affects negatively APEC's imports. Based on these findings, recommendations for policymakers and suggestions for future research are provided at the end of the study.