Mathematical and statistical models for determination of the relationship between soil 222rn gas taken from east anatolia fault zone and earthquakes

Mathematical and Statistical Models for Determination of the Relationship Between Soil 222Rn Gas Taken from East Anatolia Fault Zone and Earthquakes Statistical analysis and geophysical methods are used extensively in earthquake preliminary studies. The anomalies in the intensity of radon leaking from the ground are among the geophysical changes. The radon emerging from the depths of the earth shows some systematic changes before earthquakes, and radon measurements made on earth hope to help predict earthquakes. The research area is on the East Anatolian Fault line, one of the most seismically active fault lines in the world. The working area, which is approximately 300 km long, consists of 8 stations. This study was carried out using a total of 836,160 soil 222Rn data, which was observed uninterruptedly between 2007 and 2010. Monthly averages of 222Rn concentrations were taken and a future risk analysis of 222Rn gas was conducted. However, earthquake occurrence risk values were obtained by taking advantage of earthquake magnitudes that occurred at stations during the research period. The calculated risk values were analyzed by means of distribution functions and it was possible to make earthquake predictions at specific cycle intervals. The relationship between soil 222Rn gas concentration values and the magnitude of earthquake that occurred in the region was analyzed by TYV method and earthquake-222Rn characteristics were obtained. The change in the soil 222Rn gas concentration is not only dependent on the geological characteristics of the region and the earthquakes that are taking place, but also on meteorological variables. For this reason, the relationship between soil 222Rn gas and meteorological variables was investigated. The main purpose of this thesis is to establish models for the mathematical and statistical relationships between earthquake magnitudes and soil 222Rn gas and meteorological variables that have occurred in the past years and to calculate the earthquake risk that may occur in the study area, even though future earthquakes are uncertain. Key words: Radon, Earthquake, Earthquake Estimation, Time Series, Risk Analysis, Cumulative Semi-Variogram, Meteorological Variables, Probability Distribution Functions