Döviz kuru oynaklığı, finansal istikrar ve makroihtiyati politikalar; Türkiye örneği

This study is a brief review of the economic recovery efforts that started with the global financial crisis in 2008 and continue to daylight. Macroprudential policies applied in both developed and developing countries have been examined in detail. It has been tried to explain in which methods these policies will provide financial stability in Turkey. The main question in this study is to examine whether macroprudential policies are effective to contribute the financial stability by reducing the FX volatility or not. By converting its traditional policy into full inflation targeting regime gradually and adopting the price stability as the primary objective in 2006, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), has realized with the crises that monetary policy that ignoring the financial stability and focusing only on price stability may be risked for the inflation targets as well. It has been understood that financial stability is a prerequisite to achieve the price stability and then monetary policy targets have been redesigned. To reduce the adverse effect of the capital inflows on financial markets, some new economic policy packages have been implemented during the crises period. In this regard, the CBRT has developed some unconventional monetary policy tools beside the conventional ones. These policies have generally been called as macroprudential policies. The one target – one tool policy (price stability – short term interest rates) has been left and a new monetary policy tool combination (structural and cyclical) which taken into consideration both price and financial stability have been implemented by CBRT. With this policy mix, new ultimate and intermediate targets have been determined and implementation of monetary policies was reviewed. Two fundamental variables followed by the CBRT as the main indicator for financial stability has been exchange rate volatility and credit growth rates. These two channels have an extra importance for the CBRT since they have both indirectly affected the price stability as well. In this study, macroprudential policies to prevent exchange rate volatility and their contribution to maintain financial stability will have been tried to explain.