Döviz kurunun ticaret üzerindeki etkileriSomali (2001 -2022)

Four variables ER, IR, CS, and T are thoroughly examined in the summary, along with the relevant summary statistics. The distribution and properties of each variable are shown by these statistics. Notably, the distributions of CS and T are rightskewed with high kurtosis, IR shows negative values, ER has a high mean, and the Jarque-Bera test suggests a non-normal distribution. When stationarity is assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, it is shown that ER stabilises following differencing. A lag of one is recommended by lag selection tests for the best model performance. Co-integration analysis, which is essential in macroeconomic research, examines long-term relationships between variables. Stability at initial difference is validated by ARDL analysis, bolstering co-integration. The long-term ARDL data indicate that T and ER have strong negative relationships, whereas IR and CS have inconclusive effects. The dependent variable is impacted by changes in T, IR, CS, and ER in the near term. The error correction term indicates a significant adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. Positive correlations between ER and IR and moderate correlations between CS and T are found by correlation analysis. There are negative correlations between ER and T, ER and CS, and IR and T, which suggests that these variables are not all that dependent on one another. Key Words: Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Consumer Spending and Trading Volume