Examination of natural gas consumption of Elazig province

This Master's thesis has been prepared for examining the natural gas consumption estimation of Elazig city centre until the year 2040 depending on the present demand for natural gas and increase in population and number of houses. In the first parts of the study, natural gas is introduced and natural gas procurement and consumption policies are discussed. Other parts of the study deal with the neighbourhoods located in the city centre of Elazig province, which is the case of this study, as well as Yurtbasi municipality, Yazikonak municipality and Hankendi municipality and the population and housing figures between 2000 and 2014 was determined. Using exponential function, which is a census method, the increase rate of population and housing between years 2000 and 2014 were identified and, based on the assumption that the same rates will apply between years 2015 and 2040, the increase rate of population and housing until the year 2040 was estimated. Hourly and yearly natural gas consumption of a 100 m2 house for Elazig province was calculated and hourly and annual natural gas consumption figures were estimated separately for the year 2040. For the consumption estimations made for industries, which are classified as the big consumers of the province, total hourly and annual natural gas consumption figures were estimated for 2040 with calculations according to the rate of increase in population. As a result of the estimations made based on both methods, total estimation figures for household and household-like consumers were found out with total estimations made depending on the rate of population increase as 24.54% for hourly consumption and 22.56%, which is lower, for yearly consumption. The study can be repeated for other similar provinces and natural gas consumption perspective of Turkey can be determined for the future years. In line with this new perspective, the natural gas supply agreements concluded by Turkey between 1988 and 2000 can be updated or new agreements can be concluded. Keywords: Natural gas, natural gas consumption perspective, rate of population increase, rate of housing increase