Gran-Komor'daki iklim parametrelerinin trend analizi

This thesis identifies the correlations and the trends of change in precipitation, maximum temperature, average temperature and minimum temperature (monthly data) in Grand-Comoros during 1982-2013 from one station. The procedure utilizes the Spearman's rho correlation non-parametric test to detect statistically correlations, the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to determine statistically significant (p<0.05) trends and Sen's slope estimator to detect the magnitude of the change to measure the correlation of climate parameters. The application of correlation detection model has yielded the identification of precipitation: 72 positive and 60 negative correlations, of maximum temperature: 100 positive and 32 negative correlations, of average temperature: 128 positive and 4 negative correlations and of minimum temperature: 124 positive and 8 negative correlations. The application of the trend detection technique to precipitation has not yielded any significant increasing and decreasing trends; to maximum temperature has offered significant increasing trends of the months with the average magnitude of 2.08, 1.99, 2.04 and 2.12 °C; to average temperature has showed significant increasing trends of the months with the average magnitude of 1.54 and 1.57 °C and to minimum temperature has yielded significant increasing trends of the months with the average magnitude of 2.99, 1.50, 2.97, 1.99 and 1.79 °C during a period of 32 years. The trend rate obtained shows 83.3% for increasing trends and 16.7% for decreasing trends.