Assessing the impact of climate change on economic growt nonlinear time series application: The case of Türkiye

The gradual degradation of the environment is one of the most significant indicators of the disruption of the natural balance. This disruption stems from multiple fundamental factors. Since the Industrial Revolution, the increasing demand for energy has led to a rise in the consumption of fossil fuels, rapid population growth, and harmful emissions released into the atmosphere as a result of improper activities by institutions and organizations. The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causes an increase in air temperatures, which in turn leads to the melting of glaciers, rising sea levels, disruption of natural cycles, and a decline in the quality of life for living organisms. These changes not only pose serious environmental challenges but also create substantial social and economic problems, threatening the sustainability of various sectors. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationships between variables affecting CO₂ emissions through nonlinear time series analysis. The analysis focuses on Turkey during the period 1970-2023 and utilizes variables including CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, population growth, GDP growth, industrial value added, and services value added. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests, nonlinear unit root tests by Harvey and Mills, and nonlinear cointegration tests by Hepsağ were applied. The findings indicate the existence of cointegration relationships among the variables.