Developing expert programs for determining climatic change and application to Southern Anatolian region

ABSTRACT MASTER THESIS DEVELOPING EXPERT PROGRAMS FOR DETERMINING CLIMATIC CHANGE AND APPLICATION TO SOUTHERN ANATOLIAN REGION Burak ŞEN DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURES AND IRRIGATION INSTITUTE OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF ÇUKUROVA Superviser : Assoc. Dr. Sevilay TOPÇU Year : 2002, Pages : 171 Jury : Assoc. Dr. Sevilay TOPÇU : Assoc. Dr. Mahmut ÇETİN : Assis. Dr. Fuat BUDAK The aim of this study is to prepare an expert computer programme analysing the time series of meteorological data, provided by General Meteorology Management, by the way of parametric and non-parametric methods in order to determine the climatic change; and via this programme to analyse the observation data of regional weather stations on the GAP area to determine whether the reservoirs and aggravation establishments in the region affects the regional climate. In the prepared computer programme trends, instability and plunges are illustrated visually by plotting the graph of the observation data against time. Following the visual analysis it is examined whether there is a trend between data by means of Kendal Rank Correlation, Spearman Rank Correlation, and The Simple Linear Regression Analysis. The stability of the variances of the observation data is examined by using F test whereas the stability of averages is examined by Student t test. The dependence of observation series is explored via the Significance of Otocorrelation Coefficient and Wald-Wolfowitz Method. The homogeneity of the observation data is explored via the Kruskal-Wallis Homogeneity, Runs and Mann- Whitney U tests. As the result of the analyses it is found that generally there is a certain increase in the average of daily relative humidity in the area, and, comparing with the relative humidity, there is a less certain increase in the annual average of the daily minimum temperatures. No considered change in the annual average of daily maximum temperature or in annual total precipitation amount is come across. Key Words: Climatic Change, Expert System Version 1.0, Parametric and Non- parametric Methods, GAP, The Effect Of The Reservoirs And Aggravation Systems On The Climate II