Sectoral and scenario based optimal land use planning in Büyük Menderes Basin with vulnerability analysis and modelling

The integration of nature conservation and sustainable development studies into spatial planning strategies has become increasingly prevalent. Nevertheless, it remains unclear to what extent vulnerability analysis and modelling can be effectively employed to achieve optimal land use, sectoral, and scenario-based planning within a nature conservation approach. This study examines the impact of alterations in ecosystem services on the sustainability of the Büyük Menderes basin area within the context of the Nature Preserve Approach (NPA) framework. The objective is to enhance the efficacy of nature conservation strategies and sustainable development practices in watershed regions confronting the challenges of climate change and human activities. This is achieved by identifying vulnerable areas, determining optimal sectors, and exploring scenarios with minimal impact on nature conservation. The primary research question guiding this study is the impact of changes in ecosystem services on the sustainability of the Büyük Menderes basin area. The study aims to identify gaps in current knowledge and innovative interventions to enhance the effectiveness of nature conservation strategies and sustainable development practices in basin areas grappling with climate change and human activity by exploring these questions. Three rounds of in-depth interviews with experts were conducted to enhance the study, and several integrated methods were employed to analyse vulnerability and model potential scenarios. These included FAHP-TOPSIS, Grey Relational Analysis, and PROMETHEE I-II. The study used ideal spatial, sectorial, and scenario-based planning in the Buyuk Menderes Basin. Furthermore, various assessment and verification analyses, including machine learning, hot spot analysis, and the Kappa test, were employed to ensure the consistency of the methodologies applied throughout the research process. Following the determination of optimal spatial areas based on NPA, a variety of sectors were analysed with consideration of multiple criteria. The results of this analysis evaluate sector-specific sensitivity and prioritise sectors within the BMH, with agriculture accounting for 18% of the total, industry 20%, services (including education and health) 17%, energy 9%, forestry 17%, tourism 6%, and construction/real estate 13%. A scenario-based analysis reveals the ranking of sectors and their interactions, thereby underscoring the necessity for a balanced approach to conservation efforts. The impact that sectors such as industry and agriculture can have on the utilisation of resources and the resulting environmental impact is substantial. Conversely, sectors such as tourism and energy demonstrate divergent effects. The integration of vulnerability analysis and modelling techniques within the NPA framework enables the identification of optimal spatial configurations, sector-specific suitability, and development scenarios, which collectively serve to mitigate the adverse impacts on nature conservation in the Büyük Menderes basin. This approach serves to enhance the efficacy of strategies for the conservation of nature, sustainable practices for development, and environmental planning in the context of climate change and human activities in the basin area. Keywords: Ecosystem Services, Sensitivity Analysis, Nature Preservation, Integrated Planning, Sustainability.