A research for effects of global warming on Kilis Musabeyli and Balıkesir Bigadiç-İlyaslar dams

In recent years, global warming is one of the major problems that influences our country as well as world. It is obvious that, if the usage of water resources is planned well, people can use them many years. Precipitation, evaporation and runoff that are important parts of hydrological cycle, will be in a trend which either increasing or decreasing in the future. Some researches in Turkey showed that, flow of some streams increased rapidly because of heavy rains. In this study, the effects of rainfall and temperature changes on streams are researched. In order to determine social, economical and meteorological effects of changes of a stream's flow, average mounthly rainfall is calculated for future. Climate change influences Marmara, Trakya and Southeastern Anatolia regions very much and natural events like flood and drought is more frequently seen in these regions. Therefore, Musabeyli Dam in Kilis province in Southeastern Anatolia and Bigadiç-İlyaslar Project in Balıkesir province in Marmara are choosen as case studies for this research. Predicted rainfall and flow values between 2013 and 2070 are considered for these two cases. Firstly, daily rainfall and flow values are gathered as graphics from a web-based tool for one of the Tübitak projects of İstanbul Technical University. These values depend on A2 scenario, general circulation model ECHAM5 and Regional Climate Model Version 3 (REGCM3). Then, using these values, average mounthly values are calculated. With the help of these mounthly values and the TURC method, flow values are calculated based on Asi basin for Kilis and Susurluk basin for Balıkesir. Moreover, irrigation areas are recalculated with the new values and compared with the values on DSI's project reports. New irrigation areas are calculated by maintaining the characteristics of dams and using newly calculated flow values. Key Words: Climate Change, Hydrological Cycle, M. Turc Method, Modelling, Rainfall- Run off Data, Reservoir Operation