Rail system and electric bus feasibility assessment in Manisa

Factors such as population growth, urbanization concentrated in the city core, intensive private vehicle usage, and the existing transportation infrastructure reaching its capacity limits have generated significant traffic pressure in Manisa. Decisions regarding the strengthening of public transportation infrastructure must be grounded in realistic economic and technical feasibility analyses. This thesis presents transportation alternatives by modeling future travel demand between Manisa City Hospital, located in the central districts, and the main campus of Manisa Celal Bayar University in Muradiye, along a route passing through the urban periphery. Two distinct public transportation systems—electric buses and rail systems—were examined. These modes were comparatively analyzed in terms of system characteristics, capacity, investment costs, operating expenses, maintenance requirements, headways, energy consumption, accessibility, infrastructure needs, and financial sustainability. The study proceeds on the hypothesis that the existing railway line, currently operated by the Turkish State Railways (TCDD) and passing through the Manisa city center, is expected to become redundant for intercity traffic following the introduction of high-speed rail infrastructure in Manisa. Based on this hypothesis, the study investigates the potential advantages of establishing a new transportation system by utilizing this existing railway infrastructure to reduce initial rail system investment costs. Travel data, ticket pricing, existing schedule plans, peak-hour distributions, and line usage rates for the years 2024–2025, provided by the Manisa Metropolitan Municipality and Manisa Transportation Services Inc., were comprehensively analyzed. In the economic feasibility analysis, a 2-year period was designated for project planning, financing, and construction for both systems. Subsequently, various scenarios were modeled using a 20-year ridership projection, incorporating annual increases in ticket revenue and passenger numbers, updates to operating expenses, euro-based revenue calculations, credit utilization conditions, investment payback periods, and income–expense balances. The analyses indicate that electric buses are feasible in the short term due to lower costs, operational flexibility in increasing frequency, and the absence of major urban interventions since they utilize existing road infrastructure. Conversely, while the rail system offers advantages such as high passenger capacity, reliability, and immunity to traffic congestion, it is considered a high-risk investment due to substantial initial capital costs, maintenance requirements, infrastructure needs, and a long return on investment (ROI) period. Nevertheless, utilizing the existing TCDD railway infrastructure has the potential to significantly reduce rail system costs, thereby enhancing it is viability.