Evaluating MIGA guarantees from a country perspective and the impact of these guarantees on countries' financial development

This study aims to examine the structure, operations, and effectiveness of the guarantee mechanism of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), which operates within the World Bank Group. The study first seeks to assess the distribution of MIGA guarantee support across countries and the impact of such support on countries' financial development. In this context, the countries that have benefited most from MIGA guarantees were examined, and the relationship between MIGA support and the financial development of these countries was tested using statistical methods. The study covers the period from 1997 to 2025. Data from the 10 countries that benefited most from MIGA guarantees during this period—Serbia, Turkey, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, Russia, and Panama—were included in the analysis. The analysis employed a panel data approach, utilizing the Maddala-Wu panel unit root test, the Hausman test, a fixed-effects model, and the Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error estimator. For the analysis, a regression model was first constructed; in this model, the financial development index was defined as the dependent variable, while MIGA guarantee support, the exchange rate, and interest rates were treated as independent variables. The results of the analysis showed that all dependent and independent variables were statistically significant. The analysis revealed that the exchange rate, the real interest rate, and MIGA guarantee support are statistically significant, though their levels of significance differ. It was concluded that the exchange rate has the strongest statistical effect, followed by MIGA, while the real interest rate has the weakest significant effect.