Orta gelir tuzağı: Başarılı ve başarısız ülkeler arasındaki yapısal değişim farkı

Structural change and technological catch-up are the key transformations necessary for economic development. How different are structural change and technological catch up processes of the countries that performed fast transitions to high income category and of the countries undergoing slow transitions? The analysis is based on the structural modernisation index developed by Lavopa & Szirmai (2018) as a measure of a sector's relative productivity weighted by its size in the economy. It illustrates average achievement of a sector in the two dimensions of structural transformation. Taking into account the middle income trap literature, the modified structural modernisation index values are calculated for manufacturing and technology intensive sectors which are important for development of middle income countries. The successful countries (the countries that performed fast transitions) are diverged from the failed countries (the countries undergoing slow transitions) in medium & medium-high tech manufacturing index values. The failed countries could not sufficiently improve at least one of the transformations. Therefore, the findings of this study supports the literature emphasizing the importance of domestic innovation, moving up to value chain, and fostering structural change towards sectors with advanced technological contents. It also agrees with the idea that the countries must expand the share of high-tech sectors in the economy and decrease technology gap simultaneously. Improving only one of them is not sufficient to be successful in the way of becoming a high income country. Furthermore, the findings signal an early deindustrialization in some of the failed countries. Key Words: Middle-income trap, structural change, structural modernisation index, technological catch-up, growth slowdowns, economic development