Simplex projection ve sarıma yöntemleri kullanarak 25. güneş leke çevriminin tahmin edilmesi

Solar activity refers to changes in the Sun's magnetic field that are seen, and these changes have a wide range of impacts on Earth and nearby space. Solar activity includes observed phenomena like solar flares, coronal mass ejections, fast solar winds, sunspots, solar energetic particles, etc. Predicting solar activity events like solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms is crucial for the Earth and its surrounding environment. Solar cycles need to be anticipated well in advance, and safety measures need to be implemented, in order to mitigate any potential harm from these occurrences. Furthermore, these forecasts offer a significant benefit in terms of creating a safer atmosphere for people in space. Recent research on solar activity estimation have produced better results than in the past because of the use of sunspot count and climate data gathered throughout time, as well as advances in technology. By identifying which of the two methods (Simplex Projection and SARIMA) to apply for the estimation of the 25th sunspot cycle performs better, this study will add to the body of knowledge on solar activity cycle estimation. The beginning and finishing points of the training and test sets for the models that will be chosen must be determined. The most precise determination of the training data set and prediction data set intervals will be the most crucial factor in this case. With chaotic time series data, even a poorly chosen value can significantly alter the outcomes. We can better understand how charged particles from the Sun may harm Earth after positive or negative changes in the Earth's atmosphere and take preventative measures if these criteria are best determined for the procedures to be applied. By comparing the accuracy of the methods used to predict the current cycles, it will be possible to predict the 25th sunspot cycle. As a result, a thorough investigation into a deeper comprehension of the solar dynamics—which are now poorly understood—is intended, together with a literary contribution.