Regime change: United States initiative for regime change in Syria 2011-2020

Regime change implemented by third-party actors is a phenomenon that has been researched in both International Relations and Foreign Policy Analysis. There are broader regional implications and political results of regime change decisions for those who intervene. Considering the political, economic and military influence of the United States of America in international politics, the dynamics behind the regime changes implemented by U.S. constitute a significant area of research. This study aims to answer the question why the United States of America, which has repeatedly implemented regime change operations before, failed to achieve its goal in Syrian Civil War. This study examines the period from the beginning of the war in March 2011 to the end of 2020. The study is going to answer the research question within the scope of type III neoclassical realism. According to the theoretical framework, states can sometimes make wrong calculations. In other words, U.S. could not correctly calculate the Civil War in Syria and its policy against this war and failed its aim to change the regime due to the influence of other powers in the region. In accordance with its strategic culture, Russia played more effective role in the war with its support to Assad regime in this case. Systemic stimuli forced the U.S. to form an alliance with Russia and internal actors influenced the decisions of the U.S. in the war. U.S. could not take foreign policy decisions as expected due to the lack of consensus among the internal actors of the U.S. during both Obama and Trump administrations. After the Russian intervention in 2015, Obama understood that his desire to topple Assad would not come true. Existing literature emphasizes the correlation between systemic and local factors. Neoclassical realism is used as a theoretical framework in this study. The scope and nature of the U.S. intervention in Syria and the decision to intervene or not as a foreign policy choice is the dependent variable, and the U.S. national interests in Syria, regional stability and international order are independent variables. Neoclassical realism provides a comprehensive theoretical framework to understand the logic behind the foreign policy decisions of U.S. The Results of this study reinforce the notion that it is not correct to examine the foreign policy decisions only focused on force and threat without considering the impact of variables that intervene at the internal level.