Risk analysis and cost evaluation under the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM): a case study of the molded iron sector

This thesis evaluates the financial and operational risks faced by Türkiye's mold iron sector due to its high energy intensity and the impact of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The study analyzes Scope 1 carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions from 2016 to 2022, calculates CBAM compliance costs, and assesses supply chain risks using the Strategic Factor Analysis (SFA) framework. Carbon pricing projections used in the study indicate that the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon price is expected to rise from €100 per ton CO₂ in 2022 to €133 per ton CO₂ in 2027. Based on the analysis, total CBAM-related costs in the mold iron sector are projected to increase from €10.7 million in 2022 to €15.7 million in 2027. The SFA-based risk assessment identifies the major risk factors as carbon intensity (36% risk score), energy security (34% risk score), and supplier compliance (21% risk score). The results indicate that carbon intensity and energy security represent the highest risks in the sector, while the rising CBAM costs pose a significant threat to the industry's competitiveness in the EU market.To mitigate these risks, the study recommends carbon reduction strategies, supplier diversification, a transition to renewable energy sources and access to green finance to sustain long-term competitiveness and minimize financial pressures under CBAM regulations.