Applicability of judgmental factors in forecasting methods and an application

In forecasting methods, considering of multi-criteria approach including judgmental criteria provides more reliable forecasts. Because of existing qualitative criteria affecting exchange rate forecasting should be integrated to the publishes applying quantitative methods in decision problem. In this thesis, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to prove usability of multi-criteria approach and judgmental factors in forecasting methods and applications of various exchange rates followed. Thus, a new approach of exchange rate forecasting studies is presented and more reliable results obtained.