Forecasting analysis on real estate development and application of housing area model in Istanbul

Valuation of real-estate is to designate the development project or rights and benefits related to a property and the possible value at a certain date within the framework of independent, neutral and objective criterion Real-estate development projects are one of the concerns of the real-estate valuation. In this thesis, a risk analysis system to be applied on the residence development project which is one of the types of real-estate development projects and a linear multiple regression model has been developed towards defining the unit sales value which is one of the most significant variables that form the project risk under information management.Real-estate and residence development sector has been examined in terms of the risk analysis system and several analysis has been studied related to the investments realized by the organizations in Turkey under the scope of residence development projects. Theoretical structure of the risk analysis has been formed after the national and international status in the real-estate development market has been assessed.Variables which may produce risk at the investments of the real-estate developments have been defined as the consequence of the risk analysis studies on the real-estate development data obtained from the real-estate investors and possibility of establishing a risk management system which may lessen the risk for the organizations perform real-estate development projects have been studied.A data base to define the unit sales price which is one of the most significant variables have been created as the basis of the systems of group and automatic valuation domestically. Data related to the residence kind of the real- estates in the valuation reports prepared by the relevant companies allocated license by the Capital Markets Commission have been transferred to such data base. A statistical valuation model has been formed owing to such data have been organized and applied multiple linear regression analysis.Key words: real-estate development, real-estate investment partnership, residence development, risk analysis, risk management, valuation, residence valuation, multiple regression analysis.