Modelling the adaptation of some cultural plants produced in Thrace region to climate change

Today, the effects of climate change have begun to be experienced intensely. It is estimated that many sectors will be affected by climate change. The agricultural sector is one of these sectors. First of all, it is necessary to predict precisely how the climate will change, and then to determine what precautions should be taken by making plans. The aim of this study is to predict how climate change will affect the geographical distributions of wheat, canola and sunflower plants grown in the Thrace Region in the future, using a plant suitability model. For this purpose, the suitability prediction has been made in the Thrace Region in line with the results of HADGEM2_ES model RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the present (1950-2000) period and for the 2050s for wheat, canola and sunflower using the Ecocrop module in the DIVA-GIS program. As a result, in the TR21 Thrace Region in the 2050s, in the HADGEM2_ES model RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suitable, very suitable and perfect areas will be replaced by unsuitable, very marginal, marginal areas, respectively, in wheat compared to today, which will be more severe under RCP8.5 scenarios. For canola, suitable and very suitable areas will be replaced by suitable and excellent areas, respectively, in the 2050s, and this positive situation will occur more in the RCP4.5 scenario. In sunflower, on the other hand, it has been predicted that the areas that are perfect today will not change in the future. It is recommended to direct the future in line with these results while planning the producers, decision makers and practitioners.