The possible effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on Turkey's foreign trade structure

In this study it is intended to emphasize the importance of the "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" shortly the TTIP in terms of world trade and Turkish foreign trade and to reveal the adverse effects that Turkish foreign trade may face if it becomes a reality. In the study in order to understand the TTIP's importance in terms of World and Turkish foreign trade, primarily, foreign trade data obtained from TUIK, based on the 2000-2015 period was used and the bilateral trade relations have been examined in order to predict possible changes in trade balance between Turkey and these blocks based on the current trade balance. In the analysis part, foreign trade analysis of goods groups was carried out by using the Classification by Broad Economic Categories (BEC) and the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Afterwards, with the aid of the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, goods groups that have Turkey's high competitive power in USA market, disadvantageous goods groups and goods groups with limited comparative advantages were identified. As a result of the analysis, based on the 2 digit SITC-3 classification of goods, the numbers of the groups of goods that Turkey has competitive advantage in the USA market are 27, 06, 84, 52, 34, 07, 96, 03, 29, 83, 78, 67, 85, 58, 05, 66, 56, 55, 42, 26, 93 and 82. The disadvantageous goods groups in the analysis respectively 32, 41, 00, 25, 24, 21, 23, 43, 08, 64, 88, 87, 63, 22, 75, 28, 11, 57, 59, 04, 76, 69, 68, 61, 77, 02, 97 and 01 are the ones that Turkey has no advantage over the USA, in other words they are found to be in a disadvantageous position. According to the analysis result, goods groups that Turkey has limited comparative advantage are 33, 81, 71, 72, 09, 73, 12, 99, 89, 74, 53, 54, 51, 79 and 62. Finally, it was found out that 64% of Turkey's export is of the goods groups that Turkey has competitive advantage, 6% is of the disadvantageous group and 30% is of the limited comparative advantage group. As for the import from the USA, import from the competitive advantage group is 15% while the import from the disadvantageous group is 45% and the limited comparative advantage group is 40%. Assuming Turkey is not included in TTIP or signing any FTA with the USA, it is expected that Turkey will lose its market share substantially. Therefore it is expected that Turkey will lose its superiority in the group of goods in which it has superiority and come to a disadvantageous position, detoriate its already disadvantageous position in the disadvantageous goods groups and move to a disadvantageous position in the limited comparative advantage group. Turkey's moving to a disadvantageous position in the goods groups, in other words result of Turkey's detoriating foreign trade limits will further decrease the foreign trade of goods between Turkey and the USA. Keywords: Foreign Trade, Economic Integration, Customs Union, European Union, TTIP