Optimization power plant capacity and geographical region distribution in Turkey

ABSTRACTBecause of social progress , economic and population growth , the necessity for electricalenergy is increasing continuously. The covering of this increase of electrical demand isnamed as the capacity expansion problems of the electrical production systems. Because ofthe importance of the problem , it is handled with different methods and tried to be solved. Incapacity addition , the majority of the alternative technologies and the difference of thesealternatives? economic and technical characteristics required the problem to be handled as anoptimization problem. The majority of the parameters that effect the problem caused to makesome laxities and assents to practice the applied optimization methods. As a result of theselaxities and assents , the truthness and the feasibility of the results are decreasing. In theliterature studies capacity-cost connection , source reserve restrictions , maximum andminimum top limits for capacity , the indivisibilation of capacities for hydroelectric powerplants , the real values of all sources , the building periods and the expenses dispersion of thepower plants are neglected or changed appropriate to the method. Especially in all linearoptimization methods , to spoilment of the structure of the bent of charge-period to convertinto step-function causes mistakes in the solutions. Besides, the place, that the power plantsare founded, is not taken into the decision variables in optimization models. However thelosses , dependent to the distance of electric production and consumption locations , areincreasing. Because of these reasons , the places that the power plants are founded must be inthe optimization results.In this research , to compansate the deficiencies that are neglected or changed in the literaturestudies , the capacity increase of electrical production systems is dealed with. The designationof the charge queue?s of the present and extra power plants are taken in the decision variablesas the work period of the present power plants (charge queue) effect the result of the capacityincrease problem. The objective function formed to designate the capacity increase and chargequeue , aims to minimize the average of the production costs of the present and the extrapower plants that has brought into a value. For this purpose , the starting of the building ofthe power plants and all of the investments that had been done in their economical life , fuel ,managing , upkeeping expenses had been discounted and brought to the date that they hadbeen taken into the enterprise. The annual expense that is brought to a value is obtained by theconvertion of the total life long expenses that had been brought to today?s value into the seriesthat is equal to the economical life of the power plant. The electrical production cost that isbrought to a value is calculated by the distribution of the annual expense that is brought to avalue into the electrical production amount of the power plant that is designated according tothe loading turn of the power plant. After preparing the algorithm that confirms the aimfunction and takes the reserves of the sources as a limit ; it is programmed with the VisualBasic 6. The inputs of this constituted model are capacity-investment connection concerningthe types of the power plants , fuel consumption data , managing and upkeeping data,economical data , quality and price data for the source types , annual demand amounts and thepresent power plants that are in the electrical production system. The decision variables of themodel are the types of the additional power plants , their capacity , year , the area that theywill be located and charge queue of all of the power plants. As the areas that the power plantswill be located are tried to be designated in the model , the appropriateness of the regionalplannings is also supplied in the constitution of the model.The application study of the model is done for the electrical system of Turkey. The type of thepower plants that is appropriate to be built between the period 2000-2010 , their capacities ,years , areas and the charge queues are designated. After obtainig the data of the past yearsand the analysis of the knowledge in literature of Turkey?s source reserves , demandprogresses , present electrical production system and regional consumption data thexvcalculations for the optimization model is done. The types of the power plants that will bebuilt are obtained as combined cycle power plant that uses natural gas as fuel and simple gasturbine power plants when no escalation is taken in coal and natural gas prices. The averageof the lowest unit electric production cost for Turkey between these years varies between44.72-47.38 mills/kWh. In this situation Marmara region becomes forward with the largestshare of the total consumption (%39.2) and also with the biggest consumption increase speed(%14.49) in the region analysis. The very few amount of the hydroelectric and lignite reservesbrought the planning of the natural gas lines compulsory for this region. The total foundedpower of natural gas (%87.8 for 2010) and the increase of the ratio in its usage in production(%84.3 for 2010) will increase the dependence of Turkey in the import energy sources in thefuture. As a result of operating the model the amount of the investment that has to be done tothe electric production power plants for each year is obtained. The %2 of escalation that istaken in the natural gas price for the sensitivity analysis of the model caused lignite fuelledpower plants priority in the planning. The domestic lignite capacity will completely be usedby the year 2007 and after this year power plants those use natural gas as fuel must befounded.Keywords: Alternatives Power Plant, Unit Generation Electricity Cost, Optimizationxvi