Türkiye'de döviz kur geçiş etkisi ve para politikası rejimleri: 1994-2020 dönemi üzerine bir çalışma

This study examines the inflation dynamics in the Turkish economy in the context of exchange rate pass-through, import price pass-through, and monetary policy regimes for the period 1994-2020. Within this framework, the research analyzes the period by dividing it into three sub-periods. In the first period of high inflation (1994:01-2001:12), a fixed exchange rate regime was applied. In the second period (2002:01-2020:12), when relative stability was achieved in exchange rates and inflation, a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting regime were implemented. In the third period (2011:01-2020:12), inflation targets were also moved away when the exchange rate was in an upward trend. In this context, the exchange rate pass-through effect and the import price pass-through effect are analyzed for each sub-period using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Forecast results point to different dynamics for each sub-period. In the first period, the exchange rate pass-through effect is stronger than the import price pass-through. Unlike the first period, the import price pass-through is ahead of the exchange rate pass-through in the second period. In the third period, the exchange rate pass-through effect is very strong. The effect of the exchange rate on inflation has indirect effects on imported inputs and intermediate goods and directly affects imported consumption goods. In addition, it affects the price expectations and pricing behavior of economic agents through the indexing channel. This strong pass-through effect also weakens the effectiveness of the monetary policy. For this reason, it is vital to solve the structural problems first and implement an economic policy that will ensure stability in the exchange rate.