A study on economic growth forecasting of Turkey

Economic growth, defined as increases in the amount of goods and services produced by a country in a given period, is one of the country's most important macroeconomic indicators. Economic growth is usually calculated as the increase in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Estimation of economic growth is made by countries or international organizations in order to predict the future cycle of the economy of the country. Thus, decision makers will be able to develop early policies against future situations. It is observed that time series analysis and econometric methods are frequently used in the determination of the factors affecting economic growth and growth estimation studies. In this study, factorial designs, one of the experimental design methods, were used to estimate economic growth. For the analysis, the correlation among the factors that are considered to be effective on growth was eliminated with the help of correlation analysis and the ratio of inflation rate, unemployment rate, industrial production index, foreign trade volume to GDP and the ratio of gross external debt stock to GDP was considered as a factor in the analysis. The rate of change in GDP is taken into account as output. Data sets for 2005-2017 were collected from government's websites. As a result of the analysis, a regression model was determined. Using this regression model, for the growth rate determined with MS Excel Solver, the values that factors should take are calculated as an example.