Analysis of migration between provinces in Turkey with complex networks

Migration, which is a multidisciplinary research subject, has a complex and versatile structure due to its human-oriented phenomenon. This phenomenon, which has been continuing throughout history, is still at the centre of social and urban transformations today. Therefore, in order to manage migration processes well and prepare effective migration policies, it is of great importance for public authorities to analyse the routes through which migration takes place and to anticipate the extent of these movements. That's why, within the scope of the study, the inter-provincial migration flows in Turkey were analysed with complex networks and the future migration network appearance was predicted by using gravity models. In the study, first of all, the graphs of complex networks formed by migrations between the provinces of 2008-2017 were created and then network and node statistics were calculated. Afterwards, estimates of basic and expanded gravity models were made with migration data for 2017. Finally, by using the population projections of provinces created by TÜİK in the projected gravity models, the amount of migration between provinces to be realized in 2023 has been estimated. During the application phase, MATLAB was used to compile the network data, UCINET to calculate the network statistics, NodeXL to create the network diagrams, SPSS.20 and Microsoft Excel to apply the gravity models. The changes in the internal migration network of Turkey over the years have been examined with network analysis, the preferred migration routes have been determined and reasons for the mobility in these routes have been examined with basic migration theories. Also, the provinces that are in a central position due to the amount of migrant they receive and send were determined. The existing migration pattern was determined with the estimated Basic Gravity Model, and a benchmark was obtained by which to compare future migration flows. The estimated Expanded Gravity Model gave the prediction of the future appearance of the migration network.