The impact of Turkey's Mediterranean policy on its relations with the European Union (EU)

This study examines Turkey's Mediterranean policy and its effects for the Turkey-EU relations. The Eastern Mediterranean Region, which is the transit route and bridge between the Middle East and EU countries and ranks first in energy consumption in global terms, has become the center of attention with its newly discovered hydrocarbon reserves. Given the strategic importance of the Eastern Mediterranean, the region is considered as the energy basin of the future. At the same time, it can be predicted that the energy resources of the region can reduce the EU's energy dependence on Russia. The increasing geopolitical value of the Eastern Mediterranean, which has become an important element in the international energy sector, requires a serious diplomatic effort to share exclusive rights in the region. On the one hand, new energy sources in the region have provided Turkey with new opportunities in its foreign policy and increased its importance in the international political system. On the other hand, The EU's desire to secure its energy need, which is expected to increase in the future, and the policies it pursues in the Eastern Mediterranean to reduce its energy dependence on Russia directly affect Turkey-EU relations. Considering the developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, this study evaluates Turkey-EU relations within the framework of variables such as Turkey's energy needs, EU's energy security and Cyprus problem, and makes a cost/benefit analysis based on rational choice theory in foreign policy. The analysis shows that if the benefits to be obtained in the Mediterranean are more than the costs, the probability of conflict in Turkey's relations with the EU is high, and if the costs arising from the risks and threats in the Mediterranean are more than the benefits, the probability of reconciliation in Turkey's relations with the EU is high. In line with these results, it can be argued that the Cyprus problem has a direct impact on Turkey-EU relations, and Turkey's Mediterranean policy has been shaped in this direction. Yet, Turkey's capacity to seize opportunities in the region, the discovery of energy resources in its region and its potential to become the energy center of the region can be listed as the main factors that will increase the possibility of reconciliation in its relations with the EU.