Türkiye'nin dış ticaret akımlarının çekim modeli ile analizi

In today's world, there is no country that adopts a closed economy. The reason for this is the existence of many factors that push countries to trade with each other. These factors have led to the formation of various trade theories in the international trade literature. These theories can be listed as Classical, Neo-classical and New International Trade Theories. Classical theories consist of Adam Smith's Theory of Absolute Advantages and Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantages. Neo-classical foreign trade theories emerged with the contributions of Heckscher (1919) and Ohlin (1933). This theory is called the Heckscher-Ohlin Model or Factor Equipment theory. New international trade theories can be listed as Qualified Labour Model (Keesing, 1966), The imitation lag hypothesis (Posner, 1961), The product cycle model (Vernon, 1966), The Linder Theory (Linder, 1961), Economies of scale (Krugman, 1980), The Krugman Model (Krugman, 1979), The reciprocal dumping model (Brander and Krugman, 1983), and the Gravity Model (Tinbergen, 1962). The gravity model, which is among the new international trade theories, has been the subject of theoretical and empirical studies since the factors affecting trade in today's world can be tested in the model. In particular, the important effect of income level and distance, which are the main variables, on international trade necessitates the examination of the structure of foreign trade in country groups with different income levels. For this reason, this study aims to the trade flows of Turkey with different income groups in the period 2003-2019 within the framework of the gravity model. For this purpose, a total of 165 countries, including 25 low-income countries, 39 middle-low-income countries, 44 middle-high-income countries and 57 high-income countries, are included in the analysis in two separate equations: export and import. In the study, the panel data method is preferred since there are both cross-section and time dimensions in the structure of the gravity equation. It is expected from this study to introduce a new perspective to literature by analysing international trade flows with PPML model since it has zero trade flows, robust for econometric problems and gives better results when compare to other estimation methods.