Analysis of wood raw material production-consumption relations and sustainability of forests in Turkey with game theory approach: Nash equilibrium application

The growing reliance on natural resources, particularly for energy and raw materials, has intensified the pressure on forests along with increasing demand. The sustainable use of forests is crucial for maintaining both environmental integrity and socio-economic balance. In the historical process, energy crises, rising fossil fuel costs, and challenges in managing natural resources have significantly influenced forestry policies. In recent years, increasing inflation and incremental import costs have further exacerbated the demand for domestic timber. This increasing pressure on Türkiye's natural forests had necessitated a shift toward more sustainable forest management policies. This thesis aims to determine the Nash equilibrium(s) representing the best conditions and rational use of Türkiye's forests by using game theory, a methodological tool for strategic decision making. The study, the General Directorate of Forestry, responsible for the sustainable management of the Türkiye's forests, is positioned as the first player, while the Forest Products Industry, the principal consumer of wood raw materials, is defined as the second player. Through the optimization of strategies and payoffs for both players, the study explores how a Nash equilibrium can be achieved under sustainable forestry policies, with the aim of contributing to the preservation and effective management of Türkiye's forest resources. The findings indicate that by including flexibility factors across various regional and enterprise directorates, various combinations of the six different strategies can be Nash equilibrium(s) in determining the optimum production amount in Türkiye's forestry sector. Specifically, it has been determined that forest production/increment rates ranging between 16.6% and 50% can lead to sustainable forest management.