The effect of investment incentive certified tourism investments on the growth of the sector in turkey

Turkey, one of the world's most important tourism destinations, demonstrates that the saying "Geography is destiny" applies not only to individuals but also to countries. The country's geographical features, the richness of its natural and cultural assets, its climate conditions, and disaster risks directly influence both its economic and social development as well as the intensity of sectoral activities. In this context, the tourism sector is of strategic importance for Turkey, both economically and socially. The share of the tourism sector in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important factor affecting the scope and intensity of investment incentives provided to the sector. The Tourism Promotion Law No. 2634 forms the basis of the investment incentive system provided to the tourism sector in Turkey. The most critical feature of this regulation is that it requires tourism investors to obtain an investment incentive certificate in order to benefit from the incentive elements. In this thesis study, the impact of the variables of the number of facilities, rooms, and beds with investment incentive certificates in Turkey during the period 1983-2023 on the number of overnight stays, the number of guests, and tourism revenues was analyzed using regression models based on census data. Within the scope of the analysis, three different models were created to more clearly reveal the impact of tourism investments with investment incentive certificates on the growth of the sector. The Generalized Poisson Regression Model was selected as the most appropriate model for all three models. The analysis findings revealed that there was no significant relationship between the number of facilities with investment incentive certificates and the number of overnight stays, the number of guests, and tourism revenues. In contrast, a significant but negative relationship was found between the number of rooms with investment incentive certificates and the number of overnight stays, the number of guests, and tourism revenues. On the other hand, it was found that the number of beds with investment incentive certificates had a significant and positive effect on the number of overnight stays, the number of guests, and tourism revenues.