Üçüncü-taraf devletlerin Türk-Rus uyuşmazlıklarının dinamiklerine ve yönetimine etkisi (1917-2015) (Tehdit dengesi üzerine alt sistemsel vaka çalışması)

This study aims to examine the impact of the third-party states on the dynamics and management of the Turkish-Russian conflicts between 1917 and 2015. A single case study method was used to test the hypotheses within a subsystemic framework through the lenses of the theory of balance of threat. The theory of balance of threat was modified as to examine tripartite relation in the subsystem consists of the great power balancing and the behavior of the lesser power. The membership composition of the subsystem was conceptualized to compare the impact of different subsystemic spatial dimensions on conflict dynamics and to define patterns of interaction in the subsystem. The traditional concepts of the foreign policy behavior of Turkey were reconceptualized to prevent confusion in the international relations literature and to develop further the explanatory power of these concepts. The research concludes that the individual relations of Turkey and Russia with other powers influence their respective foreign policy objectives vis-à-vis each other in the form of an extension of the system level great power balancing into the subsystem. Similar membership compositions of the Black Sea Subsystem produce similar dynamics of the conflicts with the proviso that structural modifiers and relational variables provide more determinate directions of behavior. The centralized and decentralized management of the Turkish-Russian conflicts are shaped often by the level of Turkish-Russian mutual threat perception within the framework of the dynamics produced by the subsystem membership composition reinforced with the structural modifiers and relational variables.