Creating and analyzing electricity generation scenarios for long term energy planning

The aim of this study, to compare the sustainability criteria set out in the framework of different supply scenarios may be possible for the supply electricity market in the year of 2038 in Turkey. Possible scenarios have been generated and compared to meet the rapidly increasing demand in the electricity by taking into account the existing resources and increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Increasing use of domestic resources to reduce foreign dependence is the basis of future energy policies both in the world and in the our country. In this thesis, approaches to analyze the electricity supply scenarios and select the best scenario are used to support these policies. In this study, a consistent demand forecasting model has been formed based on the production and consumption data realized in the last two years and it is aimed to use the renewable energy potential of our country at the highest level in order to meet this demand. Scenarios for increasing the existing capacities of solar and wind energy have been created for 2038 and each scenario has been operated using the EnergyPlan model. The model outputs were analyzed in terms of determined criteria by using the preference selection index method and the best scenario was selected.