Flood risk analysis of the terme basin (Samsun) using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method

Flood and inundation events are among the most frequently encountered natural disasters in Turkey, due to the significant physical and socio-economic damages they cause. As a result, they are subjects of extensive research. In efforts to monitor, model, and prevent such disasters, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods are frequently utilized. In this study, various parameters affecting flood risk in the Terme Basin, located within the borders of Samsun Province, are evaluated. These criteria have been selected based on expert opinions and previous similar studies, and their weights have been determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The fact that AHP has not been previously applied in this specific context highlights the methodological originality of this study. Through pairwise comparisons of the criteria, weighted analysis maps were created to identify the areas within the Terme Basin that are most vulnerable to flooding. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were developed regarding the necessary precautions to be taken in high-risk areas. Furthermore, to assess the accuracy and reliability of the generated flood risk map, a ROC analysis was conducted, yielding an AUC value of 0.787. This result demonstrates that the study provides consistent and scientifically valid outcomes. In this context, the study aims to contribute both scientifically and in terms of practical applications.