Multi-year budget preparation process of the basic budget forecasting aggregates: An econometric approach to Turkey

The budget for the state in economic activity is holding is the most important tools. Delivery of public services, making expenditures, expenditures for the provision of resources and the distribution of public resources is determined at the end of a political process. Policies created for the realization of the desired event of the policy planning, programming is required. The budget planned for this policy is implemented. Government tax and expenditure policies to consider in connection with the general demand conditions and fluctuations in the economy as a tool to fix the budget, a budget has been turned into an instrument of policy.Because of uncertainty about the future state as well as individuals just decide to make predictions about the future and have plans to do. Multi-year budgeting policies, plans and budgets are the most important tool in establishing the connection. Since 2006, multi-year budgeting in Turkey due to late budgets in the future to include a three-year period is being prepared. Budget projections are based on certain economic assumptions. Budget, with the size of the economic assumptions underlying each of these effects are linked because. Budget revenues and expenditures occurring in the dynamic effects of shocks on growth is of great importance to determine.Plays in Turkey's economy for the 1987Q1-2009Q4 period of three variables Blanchard and Perotti (2002)'s model approach based on the SVAR model and the financial shocks of the output reaction force was investigated, their short-and long-term relationships have been identified and these systems are based on predictions were made. Results obtained from the SVAR model is consistent with macroeconomic theory. A positive spending shock on output in both the short and long-term positive effect on the increase as a positive income shock has an impact on output reduction have been identified.With this study, growth and fiscal policy instruments were identified between the dynamic relationships affect each other considering the circumstances, the budget foreseen is contributed using econometric methods.