Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of plant species diversity in the Bozdağlar District of the Aegean region

Climate change has had pronounced effects on forest ecosystems, particularly in plant species diversity and distribution areas, over the past century. In line with this approach, the aim of the thesis study is to estimate the potential distribution areas of plant species diversity in the Bozdağlar Region in the Aegean Region under current and future climatic conditions. Alpha species diversity was calculated within the scope of plant species diversity calculation. Alpha species diversity calculations were done in the BİÇEB software using the Shannon-Wiener index, Simpson index, species richness estimation, and the true species richness equation. Regression Tree, Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and Random Forest methods were used to model the distribution of alpha species diversity according to present climate conditions. Climate data were obtained from the Worldclim database. In the study, data on future climate conditions were downloaded for 2081-2100 for the SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, and SSP5 8.5 scenarios of the UKESM1-0-LL projection. As a result of modeling alpha species diversity, the highest R2 value was determined in the Random Forest method. Therefore, potential distribution modeling and mapping of present and future potential distribution areas were carried out using Random Forest method. The variables shaping the model were identified as slope, bio1, bio7 and reelnoon. Looking at the climate scenarios in general, it was observed that diversity in the field may change in the future and there may be losses and increases in plant species diversity in different regions. It is thought that the results will contribute to the development of region-specific conservation strategies and management plans in terms of forestry studies. Key Words: Alpha species diversity, Biodiversity, Diversity modeling, Climate change, Climate scenarios, Random Forest