Analysis of meteorological factors affecting the safety of navigation in the İstanbul Strai̇t

İstanbul Strait is one of the most dangerous narrow waterways with heavy international and local marine traffic. Due to its geographical features, maritime traffic, meteorological, and oceanographic conditions, any maritime accident in this area can lead to environmental adversities, especially for the surrounding population. Additionally, any temporary halting, delay, or complete cancellation of traffic for any reason can result in direct or indirect financial losses. These risks are mitigated through preventive measures taken by public and local authorities. This study examines the meteorological conditions that could complicate navigation for ships in the Istanbul Strait, leading to traffic delays or cancellations, aside from the specific situations mentioned. The most significant meteorological factors affecting marine traffic are visibility, wave height due to wind, and convective weather movements. Visibility is often associated with fog, which occurs during seasonal transitions. Wave height is directly influenced by the duration and speed of the wind. Additionally, visibility can be restricted due to heavy rainfall associated with convective weather events.İstanbul Strait is one of the most dangerous narrow waterways with heavy international and local marine traffic. Due to its geographical features, maritime traffic, meteorological, and oceanographic conditions, any maritime accident in this area can lead to environmental adversities, especially for the surrounding population. Additionally, any temporary halting, delay, or complete cancellation of traffic for any reason can result in direct or indirect financial losses. These risks are mitigated through preventive measures taken by public and local authorities. This study examines the meteorological conditions that could complicate navigation for ships in the Istanbul Strait, leading to traffic delays or cancellations, aside from the specific situations mentioned. The most significant meteorological factors affecting marine traffic are visibility, wave height due to wind, and convective weather movements. Visibility is often associated with fog, which occurs during seasonal transitions. Wave height is directly influenced by the duration and speed of the wind. Additionally, visibility can be restricted due to heavy rainfall associated with convective weather events. The study investigates the times of the year and the meteorological conditions under which weather events in the Istanbul Strait occur, the threshold values at which these cancellations and delays happen, and the probabilities of forecasts in this direction. The prevailing wind speed and direction of the region, temperature values, atmospheric pressure values, humidity rates, etc. meteorological parameters were evaluated together. The results of this study make suggestions that will support the prediction of similar events in the future by determining which meteorological conditions develop before, during and after the times when traffic in the Bosphorus is canceled, and most importantly, the prediction of voyage cancellation and postponement decisions to be taken on time and at appropriate intervals. The study found that the prevailing wind direction in the Istanbul Strait is northeasterly (northeast). It was determined that the main reason for voyage cancellations is the reduction in visibility due to fog. During prolonged fog events, the region is observed to be under the influence of a high-pressure center. The second main reason for voyage cancellations is wind. Wind-related cancellations are generally observed with southwesterly (southwester) winds at speeds exceeding 20 km/h.