Macro economic effects of credit guarantee fund: The case of Türkiye

This master's thesis investigates the significance and impact of credit guarantee systems. Credit is an indispensable component of modern economies, facilitating the financial needs of individuals and businesses. In this context, credit revitalizes economic activity, contributing to increased productivity and societal well-being. When access to credit becomes constrained, credit guarantee systems intervene to simplify this access, supporting economic revival. The Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) in Turkey plays a critical role in promoting economic growth, mitigating the effects of financial volatility and uncertainties on businesses, and providing equal financing opportunities to enterprises of all scales. This master's thesis analyzes the influence of the KGF on macroeconomic indicators using monthly data from Turkey for the period 2017-2023. The short and long-term effects of KGF loans on key economic variables such as industrial production, exports, and real exchange rate have been explored using econometric modeling techniques. The analysis suggests that the KGF can have a stabilizing effect on macroeconomic stability, but it is not sufficient on its own. This master's thesis aims to contribute to the literature on the subject and, when compared with other research in the field, stands as a significant reference point specific to Turkey.