The effects of global climate change on migration: A panel data analysis

Climate change is not merely an environmental issue today; it is also a global challenge that affects social, economic, and political structures. Its impacts on migration are particularly visible in vulnerable countries with high dependency on natural resources and fragile socioeconomic structures. This thesis empirically examines the effects of global climate change on international migration and analyzes the determinants of migration within an econometric framework. Using a multidimensional panel dataset for selected countries covering the period 2010–2022, a gravity model was employed to conduct multidimensional panel data analysis. The dependent variable of the study is bilateral migration flows, while the independent variables include temperature, precipitation, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, population size, geographical distance, and several control variables. Two separate models were constructed by incorporating temperature and precipitation variables individually to investigate the effects of climatic factors on migration. The significance of unit effects and time effects in the models was tested using Likelihood Ratio (LR) tests with a general-to-specific approach, and the Hausman Test was used to decide whether to estimate the appropriate model with fixed or random effects. The results of the temperature model reveal that rising temperatures in the origin country have a positive and statistically significant impact on migration. In contrast, the findings of the precipitation model indicate that higher precipitation levels in the destination country exert a negative and significant effect on migration. The results demonstrate that climate change constitutes a strong factor influencing migration decisions. Moreover, macroeconomic variables such as income level, population size, and unemployment are found to have significant effects on migration. Therefore, the findings of this research are considered to provide valuable insights for policymakers. Keywords: Climate Change, Migration, Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis, Multidimensional Panel.