The impact of the foreign trade on economic growth in the globalization process: A comparision for emerging market economies and Turkey

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between import, export and economic growth variables theoretically and empirically in terms of Turkey and emerging market economies (BRICS). The empirical analysis for Turkey and BRICS economies was carried out using annual data for the period 1960-2020. The cointegration relationship between the variables was tested by the Bound Test. The short and long-term relationships of the variables were examined with Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) estimations. According to the results of these empirical tests, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between import and export variables and economic growth in Turkey and BRICS countries. When the results obtained from ARDL model estimations for Turkey are analyzed, it is seen that export and import variables have a statistically significant and positive effect on economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, the impot variable has a statistically significant and positive effect. The long-term effects of import and export variables on economic growth in countries such as Brazil, India and Russia, which we examined, are in a statistically significant and positive relationship. Our analysis results for China has a positive and statistically significant relationship between the export variable and economic growth. On the other hand the Import variable has a statistically significant but negative relationship. Analysis results for South Africa show that the export variable has a statistically significant but negative relationship with economic growth, while the effect of the import variable on economic growth is statistically significant and positive. Keywords: Foreign Trade, Economic Growth, Bound Test, ARDL Model, BRICS