A research on VUCA perception and strategic decision-making processes of senior managers in the logistics sector: TIM 500 sample

The concept of VUCA is an acronym that reveals the dynamics of the world we live in. To describe the post-Cold War era, it has become a widely discussed issue where is first in the military field and then in the business world. The concept of "VUCA" can be defined as the world order in which many complex and ambiguous events occur because of volatility and uncertainty. In the new business environment, which is called the VUCA world, change is happening extremely fast, processes and situations are complex and just as uncertain, and ambiguity is unavoidable. In this environment, it is a big question mark how businesses realize their strategic decision-making processes. In this context, the aim of this study is to verify the construct validity of the sub-dimensions of VUCA, to examine the relationship between determinants such as gender, age, marital status and work experience of senior managers and the sub-dimensions of VUCA, in logistics businesses that are on the list of Turkey's top 500 service exporters, and it is to reveal how senior managers in the VUCA world carry out strategic decision- making process. In order to collect data within the scope of this dissertation, the "resistance to change" scale developed by Oreg (2006), the "intolerance of uncertainty" scale developed by Carleton, Norton and Asmundson (2007), the "cognitive flexibility scale" developed by Martin and Rubin (1995) and the "the multiple stimulus types ambiguity tolerance scale- II (MSTAT-II)" developed by MaLain (2009) were used. The data to be used for the first (quantitative) part of this research were collected from 204 participants who are in the position of senior managers in logistics businesses on the TIM 500 list. For the second (qualitative) part of the research, in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 senior managers. SPSS 28.0, AMOS 22.0 and MAXQDA package programs were used to analyze the data. Normality tests, confirmatory factor analysis, descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, correlation, content analysis-code clouds, subcode statistics, code matrix and code map analysis- were used in the analysis of data. The findings stated that it has been determined that four sub-dimensions of VUCA can measure the concept called VUCA world. Also, it was determined that there was no significant relationship between the gender of the senior managers and the dimensions of resistance to change, cognitive flexibility and MSTAT-II. However, it was observed that there was a significant relationship between the gender of the senior managers and the dimension of intolerance of uncertainty. Additionally, it was determined that there was no significant relationship between the age of the senior managers and the dimensions of resistance to change, intolerance of uncertainty and MSTAT-II. However, it was discovered that there was a significant relationship between the age of the senior managers and the dimensions of cognitive flexibility. Also, it was concluded that there was no significant relationship between the marital status of the senior managers and the dimensions of intolerance of uncertainty, cognitive flexibility, and MSTAT-II. However, it was determined that there was a significant relationship between the marital status of the senior managers and the dimension of resistance to change. Moreover, it was observed that there was no significant relationship between the work experience of the senior managers and the dimensions of resistance to change and cognitive flexibility. However, it was revealed that there was a significant relationship between work experience of the senior managers and the dimensions of intolerance of uncertainty and MSTAT-II. Besides, the senior managers operating in the VUCA world stated that the major change in the sector is regarding digitalization and legislation. Also, it stated that currency fluctuations and the pandemic play a key role in triggering the uncertainty in the logistics sector in the VUCA world. In parallel to this, the most important problems faced by the logistics industry in the VUCA world; customer problems, border problems, fuel prices, container problems and constant renewal of rules. Finally, economic fluctuations have been expressed as the most difficult (ambiguous) situation that creates uncertainty in the logistics sector.