Determination of maximum temperature variations using the l-moments method and their evaluation within the scope of local government climate adaptation strategies: the case of Adana

Climate-related natural disasters, which are believed to be driven by climate change, have profoundly affected many countries worldwide in social, economic, and environmental terms, highlighting the urgent need for action. Since the early 2000s, numerous environmental developments attributed to climate change have been observed both globally and in Turkey. In recent years, Turkey has accelerated its efforts to combat climate change by incorporating this issue into development plans, strategic documents, and national policies. In this context, local governments—being the institutions closest to the public—have assumed a leading role in both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this dissertation, maximum temperature data from 17 meteorological stations within the borders of Adana province were analyzed using the L-moments method, and a regional frequency analysis was conducted. Based on homogeneity tests, the study area was divided into two homogeneous regions. For each region, Generalized Normal (GNO), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Generalized Pareto, and Pearson Type III distributions were applied, and maximum temperature estimations were obtained for various return periods. The resulting projections suggest that in certain regions, extreme temperature values may exceed 45 °C over the next 100 years. These findings were evaluated in relation to the adaptation strategies outlined in the Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan (SECAP) prepared by Adana Metropolitan Municipality. As a result, the GEV distribution was identified as the most statistically appropriate model for both regions, and the corresponding formula was presented. It is proposed that the adaptation policies of local governments could become more effective when supported by region-specific projections of maximum temperatures.