The effects of trade wars on the world economy; USA Chine case

In the modern world, the US and China are leaders in many representative indicators that reflect national power, the state's international influence, and its role on the global agenda. Due to the high role played by the USA and China in world political and world economic processes, US-China relations can be considered as the most important inter-state relations of the world, determining the direction of transformation of the international system and examining them requires importance. Unlike many bilateral interstate relations that exist in the world and are of limited importance for the states directly participating in them, the nature and orientation of the US-China relations have a significant impact on the security and politics of other states and on the entire international system. The vector of the developing relations between the USA and China has a direct and significant impact on the development of the international situation and encourages changes in the international system. The aim of this study is to evaluate the mutual effects of the total exports and imports of the USA and China, which are the two biggest powers of the world in terms of politics and economy, on each other, within the framework of trade wars, with econometric methods. While evaluating the mutual effects of export and import variables, euro-dollar parity and dollar-yuan parity are also taken into consideration as control variables. When the study is evaluated econometrically, Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was preferred as an econometric method. While evaluating the mutual effects of the exports and imports of the USA and China on each other through the VAR model, impulse-response analyzes are also included. Keywords: China, USA, World Trade, Trade Wars, Trade Theories, Industrial Policies