A model study on the effect of economic crises on businesses on a sectoral basis in Turkey

In order to find a solution to the economic crises in the world economies, it is of great importance to define the crisis well, to classify it according to its factors, to model it and to solve the model. Policies designed for misdiagnosed and poorly classified crises cannot solve the problem successfully. With this in mind, many studies have been conducted on crisis management in enterprises. In this study, based on the fact that crises change the course of macroeconomic indicators rapidly, the effect of major economic crises in Turkey on sectors has been determined and it has been tried to determine which sector is related to which variables and its direction. In the study, four different sectors, namely the manufacturing sector, the retail sector, the health sector and the construction sector, were examined. It has been tried to determine the effects of macro variables with high volatility in crisis on selected sectors in Turkey. In order to determine the effect of the crises, the number of businesses opened and the number of businesses closed were taken as the dependent variable. In the study, the construction, retail and manufacturing sectors, which are among the sectors with high vulnerability in the face of the crisis, as well as the health sector, whose strategic importance has increased even more after the global epidemic, were analyzed. Independent variables are Consumer price index (2005:100), Producer price index (2005:100), Commercial (TL) (Flow Data, %), Consumer Loan (TRY) (Need + Vehicle + Housing) (Flow Data) , %), Ounce Gold London Sales Price (USD/Ounce) and real exchange rate. The data set was compiled from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Electronic Data Distribution Site, based on the range of 2010:01-2021:12 for monthly periods. In the study, 42 models were established and the RATS program was used for this. As a result, by identifying vulnerable sectors to the crisis, policy recommendations were developed to reduce the negative impact in the event of a crisis.