Fiscal sustainability and public debt management in the Turkish economy: An analysis over the period 2006-2024

In this doctoral thesis, fiscal sustainability in Turkey was analyzed using the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) method using quarterly data between 2006:Q1–2024:Q2. The main purpose of the study is to examine the effects of the transformations in macroeconomic variables in the period after 2006:Q1 on public debt sustainability through the primary surplus. In this context, the approaches of Hamilton and Flavin (1986) and Bohn (1998), which constitute the theoretical foundations of fiscal sustainability and are prominent in the literature, were taken into consideration; these approaches were tested empirically within the framework of the FARDL method. n addition, two separate FARDL models were created using basic macroeconomic variables that are thought to have an impact on the primary surplus, and fiscal sustainability was examined comparatively. The findings obtained show that the fiscal structure of the Turkish economy is sustainable, but this sustainability is at a weak level. This result reveals a situation that should be carefully evaluated by policy makers. Keywords: Fiscal Sustainability, Public Debt Sustainability, Primary Surplus, FARDL