A model study on the effect of political crises in Turkey on economic indicators

The phenomenon of globalization brought about by the changes and developments in the world economy has created dependencies in economic, political and social life between countries. This situation, created by dependencies, has brought along the fact that the political institutions, economic systems and political structures, which are the determining institutions of the economic policies of the countries, have become an inseparable whole, and that the only determinant of economic, political and administrative powers is based on the economy. In an environment where politics and economy are so intertwined, fluctuations in politics and policy-making institutions can deeply affect the economies of the countries. Wrong economic policies, wrong decisions and uncertainty situations made by governments, can bring along crises. In this context, in this study, Turkey's political and economic fragility analysis in international and national conjuncture has been made. Since two analyzes were performed in this study, there are two different data sets. The first data set is based on the variables of Turkey's general economic outlook . (Republican gold sales price, BIST total transaction volume, gross foreign debt stock, unemployment rate, consumer credit, European brand oil spot fob price, gold, foreign exchange, total money supply, CPI-based real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange assets, gold reserve, official reserve assets, total reserves, consumer price index and total number of foreign tourists). In the international analsin data set, the fragility index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, growth rate and export-import coverage ratio, which were put forward by the Peace Fund for the period 2006-2021, were used While Lee and Strazicich (2003) unit root test, which is one of the structural break tests, was applied for national analysis, inter-unit correlation test and homogeneity test were performed in international fragility analysis, and according to the results obtained, it was deemed appropriate to use the second generation unit root test with cross-section dependence. Multivariate extended Dickey Fuller (MADF) panel unit root test from second generation unit root tests, mean group dynamic least squares (DOLSMG) estimator from second generation panel cointegration tests and Westerlund (2007) Panel Cointegration test were applied. According to the results obtained, it was determined in the fragility analysis that Turkey was most affected by the inflation variable, and it was concluded that fragility was less common among other frailty countries.