Modeling the potential distribution of some woody plants with non-wood forest products under future climate change scenarios in Aydin mauntains

Climate change has been evaluated as a process that has created significant and dramatic effects on ecosystems in recent years. This process shows itself particularly clearly with the changes that occur in the geographical distribution of living communities. Based on this, the aim of this thesis is to estimate the possible changes that may occur in the future of the species Cistus creticus, Origanum onites, Pistacia terebinthus and Hypericum perforatum distributed in the Aydın Mountains Region. In the study, Classification Tree, Logistic Regression Analysis and MaxEnt methods were used to model the distribution of species in current and future climate conditions. Among these three models, the highest AUC value for the training data set and the test data set was obtained in the MaxEnt method. Climate data were downloaded from www.worldclim.org (WorldClim). Data for future climate conditions were downloaded for the year 2100 according to the SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5 SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios of the UKESM1-0-LL global climate model. According to the results of the modeling process, the AUC values for Cistus creticus, Origanum onites, Pistacia terebinthus and Hypericum perforatum species were determined as 0.891, 0.916, 0.918 and 0.878, respectively. As a result of the modeling process, it was observed that there would be significant decreases in the distribution of Cistus creticus, Origanum onites, Pistacia terebinthus and Hypericum perforatum species. It is thought that obtained results will provide practical and effective benefits to the planning in terms of forestry studies to be carried out in the region.