Country risk assessment by applying multi-criteria decision-making methods: A case study ranking countries in the Middle East & North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been attracting many foreign investors for decades, but the current geopolitical situation has not shown a welcoming face towards them. Consequences of war, terror, riots and political changes in the region have forced many international companies to reconsider their future plans in the region or withdraw their investments from the region. On the other hand, there are also companies that have faith in the emerging market of the MENA with fewer competitors in the region. It should be hereby emphasized that narrowing down the best possible investment decision or decisions on future cooperation need accurate research on the current situation as well as an analysis and forecast of the upcoming situation in terms of various factors within the country concerned and also the region. The Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) analysis can help investors to choose the best alternative from a set of relevant criteria. In this research, three well-known MCDM methods, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, and PROMETHEE, were used to rank twenty-three countries based on twenty key indicators. The data required for this study was collected from the accessible databanks comprising the numbers published by the governments within the years 2000-2015. The outcome of these findings provides a set of country rankings for an interested group of decision makers, policy makers, stakeholders, researchers and other involved parties who are interested in the Middle East and North Africa region which is constantly on the move in the so-called Arab Spring or post-Arab Spring environment.