Risk management with the help of financial ratios and an application on airline sector

Neoliberal economic system which has been originated by the effect of globalization process after 1990 caused financial crisis which has never been so frequent in any term of the economical history and such negativeness revealed by crisis took effect on the business activities of firms. This doctorate thesis aims, which has the title of "Risk Management With The Help Of Financial Ratios And An Application On Airline Sector", to held important effects of globally four events from the beginning of the 21th century affecting the aviation industry globally, including the 2008 crisis which was accepted as a third generation financial crisis model, the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center terrorist attack, the SARS epidemic in 2003, and the volcanic ash explosion in 2010 on bankruptcy risk of Turkish Airlines, using chosen models of bankruptcy prediction. To accomplish this, the financial statements of Turkish Airlines which is operating on the Exchange stock marked named Borsa Istanbul, used for period 2002 and 2016 including the crisis periods and the post-crisis periods, financial ratios regarding the liquidity, financial structure, activity efficiency, profitability and growth rates and flown traffic data were considered as research variables. In the application part, Altman Z "score and Airscore models are examined and forecasts were made using various methods including artificial neural networks. According to Altman Z "score model, the bankruptcy indicators shows the company is in the distressed area, especially after volcanic ash eruption, it affected the liquidity ratios, activity efficiency rates and profitability rates negatively. According to the Airscore model, the 16 years period studied was found to be in the area considered as a healthy area. With this thesis, the necessary data are obtained in order to enable the airline companies operating in the service sector to develop financial policies to minimize the risk of bankruptcy and these findings lead to the original part of the thesis as well as the contrubute to establishing of the financial policies to be applied for the bankruptcy risk. Keywords: Financial Ratios, Risk Management, Bankruptcy Prediction Models, Artificial Inteligence, Altman Z" score, Airscore