Forecasting global civil aircraft in-service and other parameters in commercial aerospace

This study examines the forecast of commercial aerospace paramaters, i.e., Aircraft in-Service Fleet, Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) and Revenue Passanger Kilometer (RPK) for the next 20 years for airlines and other market players in aerospace ecosystem regarding their long-term strategies. The forecasts are run with the previous 20 years data via Tableau Software by empyoing exponential smoothing and multilinear regression analysis. The results are then compared with Boeing and Airbus figures. The study also explores the effects of Gross Domestic Product, inflation, and crude oil prices on the forecasts figures. The findings suggests that Tableau Software forecasting tool has accurate and promising results, particularly in Aircraft in-Service fleet forecast compared to Boeing and Airbus estimations. The results also show that Gross Domestic Product has a significant and positive effect on ASK and RPK, while inflation rate has a negative and significant effect on Aircraft in-Service fleet. The study provides valuable insights on long term aircraft fleet forecast outputs for the civil aviation industry itself and for the authorities and investment professionals that are interested in civil aviation.