The impact of agricultural supports on agricultural production in Türkiye: Panel data analysis and application of the nominal group technique

Despite the shrinkage of agricultural land in Türkiye between 2002 and 2022, agricultural production has increased by more than 100%. In addition, new international principles and approaches were established during this period for the support instruments used by Türkiye to manage agricultural production. In the Doha agricultural negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO), of which Türkiye is a member, and in the European Union, where it is carrying out the accession process, the principles that internal agricultural supports should be independent of agricultural production and that internal supports that interfere with international trade should be dismantled were adopted in line with neoliberal policies. In line with these principles, domestic agricultural support in both WTO members and EU countries has evolved into a form that focuses on products and producers rather than agricultural production. In this context, the question of whether the agricultural support provided in Türkiye is independent of agricultural production is important in terms of international commitments. Another question is to what extent the objective of protecting domestic producers, which is one of the basic principles of agricultural subsidies, is achieved. Against the background of these questions, this study discusses whether the instruments of agricultural support used in Türkiye after the turn of the millennium are independent of agricultural production, to what extent agricultural support protects agricultural producers and what problems exist with the practice of agricultural support. Two different analyzes were carried out as part of the study, one qualitative and one empirical. The Nominal Group Technique (NGT) was used to determine the effectiveness of the support measures in Çukurova Region and to determine the priority and importance of the problems experienced by agricultural producers in their production processes. The NGT results were subjected to a thematic analysis in order to obtain a macro perspective. The main criticisms agreed upon in relation to agricultural support are the inadequacy of fuel and fertilizer support, the fact that support is not targeted at planned production, and the fact that this support is not aimed at reducing the tax burden. The difficulties encountered in agricultural production were thematically high agricultural inputs (32.6%), operating costs (31.4%), insufficient agricultural support (19%) and sectoral problems (16.9%). In order to determine whether agricultural support is independent of production in Türkiye and how agricultural support affects production depending on the type of application, 4 different econometric forecasting models were created for the period 2002-2020 and 81 provinces. The econometric models were estimated using the estimator developed by Huber, Eicker and White. The results of the analysis show that, ceteris paribus, agricultural supports are not independent of agricultural production. Specifically, a 1 % unit increase in deficiency payments has an average effect of 0.85 % on agricultural production, a 1 % unit increase in area-based supports has an average effect of 0.78 % on agricultural production and a 1 % unit increase in animal supports has an average effect of 0.85 % on agricultural production. The statistically significant effect is 2.63. A 1% unit increase in total agricultural support has a statistically significant effect of 2.49% on agricultural production. The variables included in the study and used in the empirical analysis for the consumption of chemical fertilizers and the use of agricultural credit also have a statistically significant and negative effect on agricultural production, albeit with a low coefficient. Given the results of the analyzes, it is important for Türkiye to address the level of agricultural subsidies within the framework of its national goals and concerns regarding agricultural subsidies and its international commitments and responsibilities. At a time when food inflation is increasing worldwide and there is a trend towards protectionist domestic support policies for agriculture due to problems in accessing agricultural products, it is recommended that the effectiveness of domestic support policies in Türkiye be significantly improved. At a time when food inflation is increasing worldwide and there is a trend towards protectionist domestic support policies for agriculture due to problems with access to agricultural products, it is recommended that the effectiveness of domestic support policies in Türkiye be increased. Keywords: Agricultural supports, panel data analysis, nominal group technique, agricultural liberalization, agricultural production